Ambar Saar,The people who left the party were mostly duds who couldn’t help the BJP at the regional or national level. Ever since Himanta Biswa, the BJP seems to think that taking in all and sundry from other parties will help it consolidate votes. However, if they were smart, they would have seen what happens when you do that after the 2021 West Bengal elections.This has been a very strange election. i am going to pen what i have come across the past few days.
In one of my previous posts, I mentioned that there are dozens of reasons why the BJP failed to secure a majority. However, the two biggest factors remain the same: first, the elections this time went back to the way they were pre-2014, fought locally rather than nationally. Second, the INC has been trying to perfect the formula of total Muslim consolidation with SC/ST and powerful community votes in states. They were very successful in Karnataka using this formula (Muslims+SC+ST+Vokkaligas), resulting in the decimation of the BJP and JDS. They nearly succeeded in the 2022 UP assembly elections as well, where the BJP could have easily lost the majority on top of losing 55 seats. But the formula finally paid dividends in the lok sabha elections, with total Muslim+SC+Yadav consolidation leading to the BJP coming behind INC+SaPa in the state. Ofcourse, in states where M+SC+powerful community consolidation was not a factor, there were other reasons. In RJ it was terrible ticket distribution yet again and in MH, it was a combination of maratha agitation, rural distress and sympathy for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav.
The INC has every reason to be confident going into the assembly and 2029 general elections. It’s rather ironic that they are using the same strategy and talking points as Modi and the BJP did in 2013-14, where the vote was against the establishment, and outreach was to young people.
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you seem to have hit the nail on the head with respect to the elections going local than national this time round. It looks to be a combination of factors with local insipid BJP leadership and not talking about their manifesto as Sachin Saar alluded and also seems the scare tactics of reservations being taken away has worked along with nonchalant attitude to BJP expecting to win on Modi's image and ram mandir alone. I mean the opposition was talking about making the elections local and fight on basis of caste for a while now, but the BJP haven't taken it seriously till now.
I forgot to write in the previous post but the voting pattern of KHAM (kshatriya Harijan Adviasi muslim/minority) seem to have come back partially atleast. have to see where this goes.
Coming to uddhav i don't think there was any sympathy for him unless they were hardcore followers of balasaheb. the uddhav sena faction seems to have got the votes of muslims and this is a problem for the BJP going forward as they will have to tackle whichever party is standing against them, will get votes blindly. Sharad Pawar is different with maratha strongman image, but if the marathas are going to hitch their wagon to sharad pawar all the very best to them. I still think the prakash ambedkar party which fought separately in the last 2019 elections has worked in tandem with the sharad pawar faction to cause damage to the BJP/NDA. The loss has been in 15-30k votes in 8-10 seats with some chunk taken by independents that were missing last time around.
Congress or any opposition will keep getting votes in a 2 party contest as people at the village level/ town level will be split into two groups and when one group supports one party the other automatically supports the other. It will take a while to break it down completely or the introduction of a third party will decimate one of the parties atleast that was seen during the rise of regional parties that led to decline of communists and then the congress as the BJP came along.
Statistics: Posted by venkat_kv — 27 Jun 2024 03:05